What we're watching on election night for energy

There's a lot at stake for energy in the midterms, from the fate of the bipartisan permitting deal to the growing backlash against data centers and electricity prices. Why it matters: The results could spotlight which energy topics resonate with voters — and which have become political liabilities. Gasoline and diesel prices have been big on the campaign trail, offering a chance to see how much voter frustration over energy costs matters at the ballot box. Data center politics: There are sharp differences between the parties, even though data centers aren't especially popular with either party's slate of candidates. Why it matters: The pace of the AI buildout affects power demand and emissions. State of play: 32.4% of Democratic candidates support moratoriums at the federal, state, or local level, compared to just 3.4% of Republicans, per Data Center Watch, which tracked hundreds of races. Zoom in: Meanwhile, Ballotpedia is tracking dozens of ballot measures on data centers, many of which would impose new restrictions. Ohio is a hot spot. Control and permitting: The outcome will affect the politics of the lame-duck session — and that means the politics of the bipartisan permitting deal. What they're saying: If Democrats take both chambers, "leaders might opt to wait until they hold the gavels next year to renegotiate compromises," the research firm ClearView Energy Partners said in a note. Yes, but: A reminder that backers of the current bill think it's folly to expect political space to write a more liberal bill that President Trump would sign, or that could even pass the Senate. Threat level: What if the results are very close? ClearView notes that if Trump and allies contest the results, "weeks of post-election skirmishing could complicate passage of any bill." Political lessons: The results could offer clues about where energy and climate policy are headed. State of play: Exit polling is not famously precise, but it could provide a barometer of how much voters truly care — or not — about data centers. It's also worth watching how candidates who made high gas and diesel prices central to their campaigns fare tonight. My thought bubble: Keep an eye on the performance of progressive vs. centrist Democrats. If the latter overperform, it could be another sign that aggressive climate policies won't return to vogue with Dems. Zoom in: Let's say, for instance, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro's (D) victory is even more of a blowout than expected. That could bolster more centrist, oil and gas-accepting candidates in the 2028 cycle (when he might run for president). The next Congress: Regardless of chamber control, don't look for many opportunities for big new energy laws if permitting goes kaput. Yes, but: There will be no shortage of messaging bills and positioning for the 2028 White House race. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) has pledged to bring back clean energy tax credits killed in the 2025 GOP budget law. What we're watching: Limited chances for common ground around nuclear power and geothermal. For instance, the wide-ranging Senate permitting bill contains several bipartisan geothermal bills that already cleared the House. Oversight power: If Democrats take control of either chamber, expect aggressive investigations of White House energy policies and investments, a topic we recently explored. State utility bosses: A number of states have elections for electricity regulators, who often exert powerful control over power prices and planning. Zoom in: One place to watch is Georgia, where two Democratic victories would flip party control of the state's Public Service Commission for the first time in decades. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has more. Governors: The winners of governors' races will have a big say in everything from oil and gas development to electricity prices. Zoom out: S&P Global has a nice look at energy differences in several governors' races, though a number of the contests are not especially competitive. Friction point: One place to watch is Texas, where oil and gas interests favor incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott (R) in his surprisingly tight race against Gina Hinojosa. Sign up here for Axios' Future of Energy newsletter.

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