Are prediction markets accurate on elections? The US midterms are a big test
Polymarket and Kalshi have risen for collecting the ‘wisdom of crowds’. But after high-profile blunders, some wonder if their predictions were just ‘stupid people getting lucky’ Just as voting was due to end in Brazil’s presidential runoff on 25 October, a supreme court justice ordered polling stations to stay open for another two hours, to give voters stranded by flash floods and bus shortages more time to cast their ballots. It added more drama to an already tense election. The final polls the night before showed Flávio Bolsonaro only marginally ahead, by about 51% to 49% – within the margin of error. A statistical tie. Prediction markets told a different story. Polymarket priced a Bolsonaro victory at about 80% on election day, where it had hovered for three weeks. On the eve of the vote it touched 84%. Even as polls closed, the market gave the incumbent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, roughly a one-in-five chance. A few hours later, Lula had won, by 51.8% to 48.2%. Continue reading...
Join the argument
House rules →Comments load as you scroll.