Scoop: Senate Republicans fear Mississippi is in play

Senate Republicans are weighing three last-ditch spending moves that would have been unimaginable six months ago: a cash infusion for Mississippi and even more money for South Carolina and Kansas. Why it matters: It's been 94 years since Kansas elected a Democratic senator, 44 years for Mississippi and 28 for South Carolina. But panic is spreading through the Republican Party. "The wall has broken. The enemy is inside the fort," one national Republican political operative told Axios. "We are now fighting hand to hand." The Senate map, which once looked impregnable for Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), is now full of vulnerabilities. Democratic challengers are polling within the margin of error in more than half a dozen deep-red states, according to internal GOP polls. The other side: "We're nervous about Alaska. We're nervous about Michigan. We're still going to hold the Senate at the end," said another operative. Zoom in: Two weeks ago, when Senate Leadership Fund decided to take out a $5 million "insurance policy" in South Carolina, operatives took a hard look at Idaho, South Dakota and Mississippi. At the time, they concluded they didn't need to spend any money in those states, according to a person familiar with the matter. But Senate Republicans are now reviewing the Mississippi race and may need to spend there to protect Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith from a surprisingly competitive bid by Democratic district attorney Scott Colom. Senate Majority PAC, the main super PAC for Senate Democrats, announced a $1.2 million investment in the race on Tuesday. Zoom out: In early June, SLF started to reinforce a Midwestern red wall to protect the GOP majority, reserving $28 million in TV advertising in Ohio and $11 million in Iowa. Those investments have ballooned to $93 million in Ohio and $53 million in Iowa. After an initial $5 million buy in South Carolina, SLF's spending has increased to $8.5 million, according to AdImpact. And a super PAC linked to Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) is spending another $500,000 in South Carolina. SLF, which is linked to Senate GOP leadership, has earmarked $14 million for Kansas, and has spent nearly $12 million there so far. "No Republican seat is safe this cycle," another operative told Axios. What we're hearing: Some GOP Senate candidates do, in fact, appear safe this cycle. Republicans aren't overly concerned about Sens. Ashley Moody in Florida or Mike Rounds in South Dakota. The intrigue: The National Republican Senatorial Committee raised $31.4 million last month, but its coffers appear to be drained. It took out a $20 million loan as it spends aggressively on its coordinated campaign strategy. SLF ended September with $155 million in cash on hand, according to its FEC filing. The group has spent or reserved $169 million worth of video ads since Oct. 1, according to AdImpact. Even President Trump promised to unload another $100 million before Election Day in a Tuesday post on Truth Social, bringing the total from his super PACs to $400 million. The bottom line: Republicans can still maintain their Senate majority, but none of the polling is giving them a great deal of confidence that they will do so.

Read it at Axios ↗

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