NFL survivor picks, strategy: Week 6 safe, value, and trap options

GLENDALE, ARIZONA - DECEMBER 07: Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams shakes hands with Jacoby Brissett #7 of the Arizona Cardinals after the game at State Farm Stadium on December 07, 2025 in Glendale, Arizona. | Getty Images Week 6 is upon us! The playoff picture is slowly taking form, but there’s still a lot to sort out midway through October. Three teams remaining undefeated. The 49ers beat the Seahawks and the Vikings beat the Saints to each improve to 5-0. The Chiefs are 4-0 and coming out of their Week 5 bye. On the other side of things, the Dolphins, Titans, and Chargers all lost last week to drop to 0-5. The Chargers were expected by many to compete for the AFC West title, but that isn’t happening. Week 6 gets underway on Thursday with the Seahawks and Broncos facing off in Denver. An unexpectedly interesting matchup will see the 3-2 Browns hosting the 4-1 Ravens with significant AFC North implications. The 3-2 Raiders host the 4-1 Bills with AFC implications if Las Vegas can rebound from two straight losses to the Chiefs and Patriots. The Bengals, Lions, Dolphins, and Vikings all have their bye this week. I’m back with my week 6 Survivor picks ahead of Seahawks-Broncos on Thursday Night Football. Survivor involves picking one team each week to win. If they win you advance, if they lose you’re out in most cases. I’m in one pool with four entries, but it’s also a double-elimination pool. I lost one entry after taking the Chargers and Bucs the first two weeks. Last week I took a first loss in a couple other entries thanks to my decision to take the Cowboys on Thursday. I’ve got three entries alive with one strike against each. Below I’ve got a look at the safest choices, best value picks, and then trap picks. I’ll post my own picks at the end. I’ll update on Sunday once I lock in my three picks for the weekend. I’ve included odds for the favorite in each game, courtesy of FanDuel. Safest picks Rams (-12.5) over Cardinals 49ers (-7.5) over Commanders Patriots (-7.5) over Jets The Cardinals stink and LA should have no problem with them. The Rams haven’t exactly impressed this season, but they also faced a rough first five games on the schedule. They head into a five-game stretch in which they very well could win all five with relative ease. The Commanders have Jayden Daniels back, but considering what we saw against a not great Giants team, this could be an ugly one for them. Best value picks Rams (-12.5) over Cardinals Patriots (-7.5) over Jets You could save the Rams for any of the next four games, but this feels like the most winnable of those games. You could also save the Patriots for Week 8 on the road against the Dolphins or Week 18 at home against the Dolphins, but you need to get to that point in the first place. Trap pick Chiefs (-8.5) over Chargers I went with divisional games above, but while the Cardinals clearly are not a good team, I remain convinced the Chargers could still prove dangerous. You can find tremendous value down the line with the Chiefs, as they have home games against both the Jets and the Cardinals later this season. My picks this week I’ll be taking two Rams picks this week. My third pick, I’m leaning Patriots, but we’ll see.

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