Labor Department marks low layoffs milestone

Data: U.S. Department of Labor; Chart: Courtenay Brown/Axios New applications for unemployment benefits have stayed below 200,000 in a stretch rarely seen in modern history. Jobless claims fell by 2,000, to 197,000, last week, the Labor Department said Thursday morning. Why it matters: It points to a remarkable stability on the "firing" side of the labor market, even amid a slower pace of hiring on the other side of the equation. That is helping to keep unemployment low, but it also masks a growing divide between Americans who have jobs and those struggling to find one. What they're saying: "New jobless claims have been under 200,000 for a month now, an incredibly low level of layoffs for a sustained period of time that hasn't been seen since the 1960s," Navy Federal Credit Union chief economist Heather Long said. By the numbers: The four-week average, which smooths out weekly volatility, fell to 198,000, its lowest level since the red-hot job market of 2022–2023. The other side: Jobless claims don't capture every layoff. Some workers receive severance, don't qualify for benefits or find the application process too cumbersome. Still, when layoffs have surged across the economy, claims have surged with them — including during the recessions after the financial crisis and the pandemic. The absence of such an increase now is hard to dismiss. Other data tells a similar story: Announced job cuts fell 20% from a year earlier in September, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The bottom line: Employers may be reluctant to hire, but they appear just as reluctant to fire — an unusual combination that, for now, keeps the labor market on steady footing.

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