Latino men swung hard to Trump in 2024. Now they're swinging back

Latino voters, whose dramatic shift toward President Trump helped power his 2024 victory, are moving sharply back toward Democrats ahead of the midterms, two new national polls show. Why it matters: Republicans built pieces of their 2026 strategy, including newly drawn House districts in Texas and Florida, around the assumption that Trump's historic Latino gains would endure. A reversal is complicating that bet in key races. Trump's breakthrough with Latino men was among the clearest signs of a changing GOP coalition in 2024. Two years later, those gains look far less durable, though Democrats haven't recovered all the ground they lost in the last decade. The latest: A new NBC News/Telemundo poll found Latino voters preferred Democratic control of Congress 59%–35% — a 24-point advantage, double the margin the same poll found in 2024. A new CBS News/YouGov poll tells the same story: Hispanic likely voters favor Democratic House candidates 60%–39%. Zoom in: Latino men have undergone a particularly strong political whiplash. Hillary Clinton won Latino men by 31 points in 2016, according to the Edison National Election Pool exit poll, and Biden won them by 23 points in 2020. But in 2024, Trump won them by 10 points. NBC now finds Latino men preferring Democratic congressional control 53%–39%. Stunning stat: About one in seven Latino voters who say they backed Trump in 2024 now want Democrats to take control of Congress. A majority of Latino voters say their congressional vote will be a signal against Trump. Driving the shift: The economic squeeze felt by Latino voters hasn't changed much, but who they're blaming has. Nearly two-thirds of Latino voters say their income is falling behind the cost of living in the NBC poll, almost exactly where that number stood in 2024. But 78% disapprove of Trump's handling of the cost of living. Democrats now hold a 21-point advantage on handling the economy, after Trump held a 4-point edge over Harris in NBC's 2024 poll. Trump's mass-deportation agenda has also sparked backlash: 67% say Trump's enforcement has gone too far. The enforcement campaign has also become personal: 31% say they or someone close now carries ID because of ICE concerns, and 27% know someone detained or deported. Yes, but: Polling voters a month before a midterm isn't the same as measuring who actually turns out. Pew found that Trump's 2024 Hispanic gains were driven largely by changes in who voted that year, not by Biden voters switching to Trump. In the NBC poll, 17% of voters said they or someone close to them was considering not voting in person because of fear of immigration enforcement. Between the lines: Despite all this, Democrats haven't repaired their brand with Latino voters. Their net favorability has actually fallen by one point from 2024, but the GOP's has fallen by 18 points. In 2016, 55% of Latino voters viewed the Democratic Party positively and 24% negatively — a 31-point net positive rating. Today, it's 41% positive and 42% negative. Republicans have still made lasting inroads: Just 16% of Latino voters viewed the GOP positively in 2016, compared with 27% today. But negative views have also risen, from 57% then to 62% now. What we're watching: Both parties are fighting over a large and growing Latino electorate in key races across Arizona, California, Florida and Texas.

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