Strong data. Bad vibes. Voters are judging Trump's economy by prices.

President Trump's economic data keeps getting stronger. His economic polling keeps getting worse by the day. Why it matters: The midterms are less than a month away, and the administration is circling the drain on voters' No. 1 issue. It may be too late to change that, but it's also not clear anyone has much of a plan to try. What they're saying: "If I say 'oh, people are wrong, the economy is great,' then it looks like I'm insensitive. And if I then go into why the economy is great, then it looks like I'm insensitive," National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union." "It's true that the polls, which have gotten the president's success wrong every time, have been saying that people are looking a little bit depressed about the economy. But if you look at their actions, the actions speak way louder than words," Hassett added, citing spending and default data. The big picture: There is ample evidence the economy is, statistically speaking, relatively strong. 💰 Economic growth is solid and accelerating. 💪 The labor market is relatively stable. 💵 The K-shaped economy is ending as lower-end wages rise. 🛍️ Public and private data say consumers are spending more than ever. Yes, but: People feel lousy. ☹️ The Conference Board's consumer confidence index is at a 12-year low. 🐘 Republican sentiment in particular is eroding at its fastest rate since the Great Financial Crisis, per University of Michigan data. 🪫 38% of voters told the latest CBS News poll their personal finances are fairly or very bad — a reflection, perhaps, of the fact that inflation has outpaced wage growth for months now. (When respondents were asked what they think about when they rate the economy, 91% said "prices.") 👎 73% disapprove of President Trump's handling of the economy, per the latest AP-NORC survey, the lowest rating he — or President Biden — ever had. (69% say Trump's handling of cost-of-living issues has been worse than they expected in his second term.) Friction point: When voters go to the polls, they don't bring the latest release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis with them. They bring their feelings, and those are very bad. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told "The Axios Show" the administration wasn't going to repeat the Biden-era mistake of telling people how to feel. But Trump himself said last week that Republicans weren't doing a good enough job of messaging. The intrigue: So far, Trump's strategy seems to be the rich-uncle theory, which doesn't appear to be paying off with voters. He continues to promise $5,000 checks for every adult citizen if Republicans win the midterms — a $1.3 trillion bombshell that most people don't believe he'll ever pay. On Saturday, he promised seniors $2 billion in Medicare rebates, a big number that works out to about two weeks' worth of premium payments. Between the lines: Some of the tension comes from the nature of the economic boom, an AI-fueled bonanza that nonetheless appears to be leaving many ordinary Americans behind. It's not a K-shaped economy, says Krishna Guha, head of economics at Evercore ISI, but a "gator economy" — as in an alligator's mouth, where the bottom stays flat and the top is pointing to the sky poised to chomp. The bottom line: There's good reason to think the economy's not that bad. There's even better reason to think voters don't care. Emily Peck contributed reporting.

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