The midterms will come down to the cost of everything — and who voters trust to fix it

Getty Images; BI Candidates in swing states are vying to win on the Big A: Affordability. In states with key Senate races, gas, electricity, and housing prices have all soared. Now, candidates on both sides of the aisle are touting their plans to bring costs down. Zac Owen, a 31-year-old brand strategist and high school football coach in the hotly contested swing state of Michigan, said that it's normal to drive two to four hours to get somewhere else in the state. The cost of those long commutes is top of mind for Owen and other voters as the country heads into the midterm congressional elections. "Gas prices, oh boy. People are up in arms about gas prices over here. I'll tell you that," Owen said. Hearing more about gas pricing from candidates, he said, would help sway his decision. The elections are in about a month, and candidates have touted their plans to bring costs down. But a war in Iran and rising prices for things like electricity and housing threaten to keep the affordability issue front-and-center. A Reuters/Ipsos poll from August found that 47% of registered voters said the cost of living would be the most important factor in choosing a candidate if the elections were held today. Consumer price growth came in at 3.4% in August, exacerbated by the ongoing Iran war and its disruptions to the oil market. Tariffs have also added upward pressure. That puts inflation above the Fed's 2% target, although it's down from its post-pandemic highs. The Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2023 in September to try to dampen rising prices, and more hikes could happen before the year is over. Senate races in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Texas are all toss-ups, according to the political handicappers at The Cook Political Report. Business Insider took a look at how prices have fared during President Donald Trump's second term in those states, along with how candidates in key elections have been talking about affordability. Gasoline Americans are shelling out more to fill their gas tanks, as average prices are up from a year ago. "Typically, the start of autumn brings lower gas prices, but lingering volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and the high cost of crude oil are driving up pump prices," AAA said in September. Data from GasBuddy, which collects price reports from gas stations, showed prices have increased about 46% nationally from January 2025 to roughly the end of September 2026. Most of the seven swing states saw similar surges, with three of them increasing by at least 50%. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said that "politicians are now feverishly trying desperate attempts to reduce prices," such as through gas tax suspensions. He said, however, that relief is limited as geopolitical tensions remain a key burden on gas prices. Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan of Alaska, who is in a tight race for reelection against Democratic candidate Mary Peltola, has pushed for a ban on diesel exports in an effort to lower prices. Peltolta has called out gas prices in the state, posting a receipt for a $24.49 gallon, and saying that her opponent has voted "for the war that's making everything more expensive." Democratic Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed has said his campaign is about gas and grocery affordability. "Michiganders are now paying a staggering $5 a gallon for gas and $6.79 a gallon for diesel—raising prices for groceries and everything else," he said in a statement. His opponent, Republican Mike Rogers, has called for a suspension of state and federal gas taxes, and for a temporary embargo on diesel exports. Electricity Electricity prices in most swing states have risen faster than the national average from January 2025 to July 2026. Maine has one of the highest rates in the country and saw a 24% increase, compared to the national increase of about 15%. Americans are worried about what the data center boom means for their electricity charges. A Consumer Reports survey from November found more than three-quarters of Americans were at least somewhat worried their energy bills would rise because of this. "High costs of energy are burdensome to Maine families, truck drivers, farmers, fishermen, schools, small businesses, mills, and factories," said Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins' site. Her opponent, Troy Jackson, has been criticized for increases in energy costs during his time leading the state legislature; in a statement to the local news outlet WABI, Jackson's campaign said that he "has a record of working to lower energy costs and will always stand up for Mainers." In Texas, Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico wants to "guarantee large energy users like data centers fund the infrastructure improvements they need rather than passing those costs on to consumers," while Republican candidate Ken Paxton has said that he supports data centers recycling water and producing their own energy to fend off potential costs for consumers. Housing Housing prices have also surged faster than the national average in most swing states from January 2025 to August 2026. Michigan's median home sales price increased 23%, higher than the overall 6% and the other toss-up states. Redfin's chief economist Daryl Fairweather said there aren't any signs that the housing market will improve soon. "If anything, it's gotten a little bit worse in recent weeks with the bond market flaring up and mortgage rates going up," Fairweather said. Republican Mike Rogers, who's running against El-Sayed in Michigan, has a housing platform centered on down payment assistance, lowering purchase and interest rates, and incentivizing new housing construction. "The solutions I'm championing for Michigan transcend party lines: making housing affordable, bringing back jobs, fixing our broken healthcare system, and saving schools," Rogers told nonprofit news site Bridge Michigan. Meanwhile, El-Sayed has proposed streamlining local regulations to build more housing, banning algorithmic rental pricing, and expanding down payment assistance. Tariffs Throughout Trump's second term, there have been a slew of new tariffs. Businesses had to figure out what this would mean for what they import, and whether to pass these costs on to consumers. In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins has pushed back on President Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada, saying that she thought imposing the fresh round of levies was a "mistake." "Maine, our blueberries, our potatoes, our lobster, our lumber — that is processed across the border," Collins said. "If it comes back with a huge tariff on it, perhaps as much as 50%, that increases the cost of eating, building homes, and purchasing our best-known products." Collins' site touts her work in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and bringing online clean energy jobs. Meanwhile, Democratic opponent Troy Jackson has said that "tariffs will only hurt us," and that the state needs a senator who will stand up to the president. As of July, the US imported over $2 trillion in goods year to date, with battleground Texas accounting for 15% of that. ABC 7 News asked Democratic candidate Talarico about what he would do to protect cattle producers and ranchers. Part of his answer included eliminating tariffs: "We've got to reverse these corrupt tariffs that are driving up the price of fertilizer, the cost of equipment, and really putting a strain on our Texas cattle industry," he said. His opponent, Republican Ken Paxton, has been notably quiet about tariffs during recent events. Read the original article on Business Insider

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