House Democrats want to win big. It could cost them.

Democrats' dream election scenario risks becoming a nightmare as their candidates in Republican-leaning districts strain to assert their independence from party leadership. Why it matters: Add them to the sizable cohort of outspoken leftists promising to be a thorn in the side of House Democratic leaders, and you get all the ingredients for an unruly majority. "When I see things that I don't think are right, whether they're within my own party or within another party, I'm going to call it out," Jake Johnson, a Democratic House candidate in Minnesota, told Axios in an interview. Montana Democrat Sam Forstag, when asked about the approach he would take on Capitol Hill, said showing a willingness to work across the aisle and "buck your own party" have "got to be a part of it." "There is a tremendous amount of frustration with the D.C. political establishment, and ... a lot of cynicism that things aren't going to change," said Colorado candidate Eileen Laubacher. State of play: Democrats got an early taste last month when Reps. Jared Golden (D-Maine) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) repeatedly broke with party leadership on key procedural votes. The defections from a pair of independent-minded frontliners unlocked a new fear for House Democrats: That safe-seat progressives aren't the only rebellious freshmen they will have to worry about next year. It's a salient concern as Democrats put more Republican-leaning seats on their radar in anticipation of a "blue wave" on Election Day. There has been a huge spike in ads from Democrats in those districts repudiating their own party or the two-party system as a whole, Axios reported last week. What they're saying: "I will stand up to Republicans, I will also stand up to Democrats. I talk a lot about this," said Michigan swing-district candidate Christina Hines. Johnson said it's "no wonder people have historically low levels of confidence in Congress" because they "see a bunch of people put on red shirts and blue shirts ... and it's just not working." Forstag pointed to housing as an issue where he has broken with Democrats in his state, telling Axios: "When it comes to zoning reform, you know who I've seen be the biggest impediment to progress? Oftentimes, Democrats." "You bet your ass I'm going to work with Republicans," he said. Between the lines: This swing-district independent streak is bound to come in conflict with the rebellions that safe-seat insurgents are planning. Left-leaning Democratic lawmakers and candidates have told Axios they want votes on core policy issues such as Medicare for All, abolishing ICE and cutting off aid to Israel. The kind of candidate that gets elected to a seat President Trump carried by double digits in 2024 is not going to want to take those votes — in fact, they may be more likely to fund ICE and Israel. Yes, but: Some of these red-seat candidates are quite openly progressive and partisan. The common denominator: They're hearing voters' frustration about party leadership and, if elected, they would arrive on Capitol Hill with a mandate to shake up the system and remain independent. Missouri candidate Fred Wellman, who told Axios he is "very Democrat" and "fairly progressive," said he was "disappointed" that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) met with Jared Kushner in August. Wellman said he will "make a decision when I get there" about whether to vote for Jeffries as speaker and doesn't "intend to be a rubber stamp." Zoom in: Democratic operatives told Axios that this leadership-skeptic attitude extends, in some cases, to candidates not wanting party leaders to come campaign for them. "There's very little appetite for anyone in Democratic leadership," said one consultant of the battleground-district House campaigns they are working with. Matt Herdman, an adviser to Maine Democrat Matt Dunlap, offered Axios a curt response when asked if they would welcome Jeffries to their district: "They haven't offered and we haven't asked." The bottom line: None of this rebelliousness has thus far turned off the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which Jeffries and his leadership allies control. The House Democratic campaign arm has been spending heavily to support Gluesenkamp Perez even after some of her colleagues called for her to be cut off. Fittingly, Gluesenkamp Perez declared in a coordinated ad with the DCCC released Tuesday: "I don't answer to any political party or any president."

Read it at Axios ↗

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