Renewables boom faces a Trump-era cliff

America is adding record amounts of clean power despite President Trump's opposition to wind and solar — but the industry's top trade group warns the growth could fall off a "cliff" as soon as 2028. Why it matters: The disconnect illustrates the long lag between energy policy and what actually gets built, raising the stakes for a bipartisan permitting deal under negotiation now in the Senate. State of play: Wind and solar development is still benefiting from favorable economics and projects launched before Trump returned to the White House, Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, told Axios. "If the administration continues to block the permitting of clean power, you'll start to see a cliff," said Grumet, who said the drop could become apparent in 2028 or 2029. Driving the news: Senate negotiators are expected to unveil a bipartisan deal to speed energy permitting as soon as Wednesday, though any final vote isn't expected until after the midterm elections. Between the lines: Democrats have sought assurances that the administration would allow stalled wind and solar projects to advance in exchange for supporting broader permitting changes. Grumet called the apparent agreement "encouraging," citing its technology-neutral approach and provisions for administration approval of wind projects. "Passage before the end of the year is essential," he said. By the numbers: Wind and solar account for nearly two-thirds of the new power capacity developers plan to add to the U.S. grid this year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The first half of 2026 was a record for new wind, solar and battery capacity, Grumet's group reported earlier this month. The White House says those numbers reflect policies Trump has already changed. When presented with the EIA figures at an Axios event last week, Jarrod Agen, executive director of the White House National Energy Dominance Council, said: "That's a carryover from the policies of the past." The Republican tax-and-spending law Trump signed in July 2025 accelerated the expiration of federal tax credits for new wind and solar projects. Projects generally must begin construction by July 4 of this year, or must come online before 2028 to qualify. Reality check: Lazard, the financial advisory firm whose analysis is widely used to compare power-generation costs, concluded this year that renewables remain the cheapest forms of new power generation on an unsubsidized basis, although the analysis doesn't capture inherent variability of wind and solar. "We feel that we're on very firm ground in an honest, competitive marketplace, but no industry can overcome active obstruction," Grumet said. The big picture: The fight is unfolding as U.S. electricity demand rises rapidly, driven largely by the AI boom. That's a contradiction Grumet sees at the heart of Trump's energy policy. "The imperative to repudiate renewables is a greater incentive than the imperative to lower energy costs," he said, calling that "outrageous." The other side: "The issue the president has with wind and solar is, is it's not going to be the solution for the power needs that we have," Agen said, highlighting nuclear power instead. He rejected the premise that the administration categorically opposes renewable energy, saying they shouldn't have received preferential subsidies and citing dependence on China for energy equipment. A White House official said Tuesday night the administration and lawmakers had agreed to a "strong bipartisan" package, but warned that administration commitments "will not remain frozen indefinitely" if the deal doesn't advance quickly. Zoom in: Pentagon delays in reviewing onshore wind projects are a key sticking point in the permitting debate. "Just rubber stamping every project to come in is not good," Agen said. Grumet countered that legitimate military concerns can be addressed: "These are solvable problems." After Congress accelerated the wind and solar tax credits' expiration last year, Grumet said the industry expected "some return to normalcy." Instead, agencies took what ACP counts as at least 17 actions restricting development, including halting offshore wind leasing, adding political reviews to permits and delaying Pentagon reviews of onshore wind projects. Catch up quick: Federal courts have blocked several of these moves, including the broad freeze on wind approvals, barriers to renewable permitting and Pentagon reviews. What we're watching: Trump issued an executive order in August that could restrict certain electrical equipment with ties to China. Depending on how broadly the Energy Department interprets it, Grumet said, "it has the potential to be devastating to the economy." What's next: The Senate permitting deal could be a bright spot for all energy types, including renewable energy, but final passage is far from guaranteed.

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