MLB Playoffs: Ranking all 12 teams by their World Series 2026 chances

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - AUGUST 30: Matt Olson #28 of the Atlanta Braves reacts after a walk-off single during the tenth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Truist Park on August 30, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. | Getty Images The MLB postseason is here. There are 12 teams headed to the playoffs including the Houston Astros and the Philadelphia Phillies, who needed wins in Game 162 to punch their respective tickets to the dance. But now, records reset to 0-0, and all 12 teams have an equal chance to win the World Series. At least in theory. But some teams are in a better position than others as the playoffs beckon. Here are the 12 teams in the MLB Playoffs, ranked by their chances of winning the World Series. 12. Houston Astros (81-81) The Houston Astros became the first team in MLB history to win the division without a winning record. This is a team that can mash, as the Astros led the majors with 226 home runs, 42 off the bat of MVP candidate Yordan Alvarez. Four other members of the lineup topped 20 home runs as well: Christian Walker, Jeremy Peña, Isaac Paredes, and Cam Smith. But the problem is pitching, as the Astros were 24th in MLB in ERA and 21st in WHIP. Closer Josh Hader was solid in the second half, racking up 16 saves and posting a WHIP of 0.682, and Bryan Abreu has been dependable in front of him, but the bullpen has been inconsistent beyond those two. So if the rotation cannot pitch deep into games, that will be a problem. 11. Chicago White Sox (84-78) After losing more than 100 games in each of the past three seasons, the Chicago White Sox were one of baseball’s best stories this year, leading the AL Central for much of the season before sliding into the playoffs with a Wild Card spot. Chicago is powered by a lineup that features three players with more than 30 home runs — Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery, and Miguel Vargas — and as a team the White Sox posted an OBP 0f .320, second only to the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League. However, the problem in the playoffs might be starting pitching. As a staff the White Sox starting pitchers posted an ERA of 4.60 this season (26th in the majors) and a WHIP of 1.34 (25th in the majors). That sets up a tough matchup, starting with the Wild Card Series against Houston. But, they do have the Pope on their side. 10. Philadelphia Phillies (88-74) The Philadelphia Phillies cut their magic number for a playoff spot to one with a win over the Milwaukee Brewers last Tuesday. They lost their next four games by a combined score of 23-3, needing a win on the final day of the season to book a postseason berth. Philadelphia did that on Sunday, clinching the final Wild Card spot in the NL with a 7-3 win over the Tampa Bay Rays, and this star-laden team now gets a series with the Atlanta Braves to prove everyone wrong. Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Trae Turner bring the star power, and Jhoan Duran remains one of the best closers in baseball. Philadelphia also has Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sánchez leading the rotation; however, manager Don Mattingly was forced to use Sánchez in the season finale, complicating his availability this week. Then there is Aaron Nola, who is coming off a spot start on short rest on Saturday and needs to play a big role despite some struggles this season. Can a weary rotation, and a bullpen that has endured its own share of struggles in front of Duran, get the job done? That is the big question. 9. Cleveland Guardians (85-77) While the Chicago White Sox were one of the biggest surprises of the MLB season, in the end the Cleveland Guardians clinched the AL Central, and a first-round playoff bye. Their reward? After the bye Cleveland will have home-field advantage against the winner of the Houston-Chicago series, and they will avoid any of the AL East teams until a potential ALCS matchup. The Guardians are led by their pitching, as Cleveland boasts both a strong rotation and a stellar bullpen. Gavin Williams and Parker Messick pace a starting staff that produced the ninth-best ERA among starters and the bullpen, led by closer Cade Smith and the trio of setup arms Hunter Gaddis, Eric Sabrowski, and Tim Herrin was even better, with the sixth-best ERA among bullpens in the majors. If Cleveland gets enough production from the offense, that pitching staff could power them to the ALCS, where anything can happen. 8. Boston Red Sox (87-75) After a brutal start cost manager Alex Cora his job, the Boston Red Sox used a 32-5 stretch to push into playoff contention. But Boston cooled off after that torrid summer, and there are some questions facing this team as the playoffs loom. One is the health of the lineup. Ceddanne Rafaela is back after missing 16 games with a quad injury, but will Willson Contreras be fully healthy after getting hit by a pitch on his right hand in the final week of the season? A second question? Can the lineup bounce back after a difficult September. As a team, Boston posted an OPS of .651 in the month of September. Which was dead last in the majors. Pitching is not a question. The trio of Payton Tolle, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suárez is one of the best left standing, and Aroldis Chapman has been dynamic at the back of the bullpen yet again. Boston could even get Garrett Crochet back from injury in a relief role, and Tanner Houck — who started Game 162 more than 500 days after his last MLB appearance, after working back from Tommy John surgery — could be in the mix out of the bullpen as well. Which version of the Red Sox shows up, however, is the ultimate question. 7. Chicago Cubs (89-73) The Chicago Cubs have one of the best offenses in baseball, led by MVP candidate Pete Crow-Armstrong, the first center fielder in MLB history to produce a 40/40 season. This is a lineup that led the majors with a team OPS of .767, and a team slugging percentage of .428. Beyond Crow-Armstrong, Alex Bregman, Ian Happ, Michael Busch, and Seiya Suzuki all put 20 home runs on the board this season. The Cubs also have one of the best defenses in baseball, again with Crow-Armstrong leading the way. The outfielder posted a Fielding Run Value (FRV) of +26 this season, tops in the majors, and the Cubs led all teams with a FRV of +72 this year, ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals who posted a +45. The problem? Pitching. The Cubs starters posted a team ERA of 4.27 this year — worst among NL playoff teams — and only two teams gave up more home runs than the Cubs this year. And a staff that has been hampered by injuries faces another question on that front as the playoffs loom, as Kevin Gausman was injured on a tag play last week and suffered an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. Craig Counsell would love to have him for the series against the San Diego Padres. The Cubs have the offense and the defense to win games, but do they have the pitching to win a series or two? 6. San Diego Padres (91-71) If momentum could be measured, the San Diego Padres might be off the charts. The Padres went 17-11 in August, and then 18-6 in September, to lock down a Wild Card spot. This was quite the turnaround for a team that was flirting with being sellers at the trade deadline. Leading the way was outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr., who did not homer over the first 55 games of the season but finished with 25 home runs and 38 steals, thanks to a torrid closing stretch. Jackson Merrill overcame a slow start of his own to finish with 26 home runs and 27 steals, giving the Padres their first 25/25 duo. As a lineup, the Padres were second in both OPS and slugging percentage after the All-Star break, behind only the Cubs. San Diego also has one of the best bullpens in baseball, with closer Mason Miller in form behind setup men Adrian Morejon and Bradgley Rodriguez. They’ll host the Cubs in the Wild Card Series, and while Chicago won the season series 5-1, that was before San Diego’s late-season turnaround. 5. New York Yankees (93-68) When the New York Yankees lost Aaron Judge for an extended period of the regular season, the lineup stepped up in his absence. While Judge played just 66 games and hit 18 home runs, the Yankees managed to belt 223 home runs, finishing second in the majors. But with his status in question for the Wild Card Series against Boston, the rest of that lineup will need to step up yet again. And the matchup against the Red Sox will be a tough one, as Boston will likely throw Payton Tolle, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suárez against them — a strong start — and the Red Sox have one of the best bullpens in the game. And that matchup will be even tougher without Judge’s bat in the lineup. We have a deeper preview of this series here. 4. Atlanta Braves (94-67) While the Atlanta Braves would have loved a first-round bye, with the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Milwaukee Brewers out of striking distance Atlanta was able to set their rotation for the Wild Card Series over the final week of the season. Chris Sale made his final start of the regular season last Wednesday on extra rest, and will be on extra rest when he gets the ball for Game 1. The same goes for Tyler Mahle, who will have extra rest ahead of an anticipated Game 2 start. Plus the Braves get the Philadelphia Phillies in the Wild Card Series, who gave their fans something to worry about over the final few days of the season as they did not clinch a spot until Game 162. 3. Tampa Bay Rays (98-64) Few people gave the Tampa Bay Rays a chance when the season began. Leading with me, who put the Rays in the “True Longshots” category when the year began, along with the Diamondbacks, the Athletics, and the Twins. But here are the Rays, the winners of the AL East and the team to beat in the American League. MCP candidate Junior Caminero has put up massive numbers for Tampa Bay — he slashed .276/.360/.524 this year along with 42 home runs — and is at the heart of a lineup that punishes pitchers from top-to-bottom. As a team the Rays hit .258 this season, the best number in the AL and tied with the Brewers for the top number in the majors, and the Rays also posted a team OPS of .728, behind only the Houston Astros in the American League. Add in a staff that posted an MLB-best team WHIP of 1.14, tied with the Dodgers, and you have the recipe for a deep playoff run. 2. Los Angeles Dodgers (100-62) The Los Angeles Dodgers got off to their annual hot start, endured a mid-season slump that raised more questions than answers about their chances at a three-peat, but enter the playoffs having found some of those answers. Kyle Tucker’s season-long slump seems to be ending just in time for a post-season run, as he slashed .266/362/.557 in the month of September, his best stretch of the season by far. Shohei Ohtani and Will Smith are both back in the lineup, Edwin Diaz seems to have found his stuff — he was flawless in September, allowing just one hit in four appearances and striking out eight — and Mookie Betts is back to being Mookie Betts, as he slashed .345/.447/.690 in September, also putting up his best numbers of the season. When you’ve won a pair of titles, you know when to turn it on. The Dodgers seem to have done just that over the last month. 1. Milwaukee Brewers (103-59) The Milwaukee Brewers top these rankings, as they topped 100 wins for the first time in franchise history. But for this team, the real test comes in October. The Brewers have now won the NL Central for four consecutive years, and in five of the last six campaigns. What do they have to show for that? two playoff wins, including a sweep at the hands of the Dodgers in the NLCS a year ago. Jacob Misiorowski gives them a bonafide ace, as the big right-hander led the majors in ERA (1.86), ERA+ (225), WHIP (0.803), and K/9 (13.1) this season, and Logan Henderson has developed into a solid No. 2 for Milwaukee. If Kyle Harrison somehow recovers his first-half form (he was 8-2 with a 3.01 ERA before the All-Star Break, but went 3-3 with a 7.31 ERA in the second half of the season) this team could finally break through to the promised land.

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