House Republicans on track to lose majority

House Republicans are on track to lose their majority just a little over one month out from the midterm elections, according to a nonpartisan election forecaster. Why it matters: Cook Political Report shifted 15 House races toward Democrats on Friday, the latest sign that the political environment is deteriorating for Republicans. Democrats only nee a net gain of three seats to take the majority. Cook now projects Democrats are most likely to gain between five and 15 seats, which would give them a 220-230 seat majority next year. The big picture: Republicans have spent much of the cycle arguing that redistricting and a sizable financial advantage would give them more breathing room. But new Democratic maps in California and Utah are largely offsetting Republicans' redistricting gains elsewhere, according to Cook. Republicans still hold a financial edge over Democrats. The National Republican Congressional Committee entered the final stretch with $13 million more in cash on hand than the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — a record advantage for this point in the cycle. State of play: Democrats are favored in 208 races, compared with 205 for Republicans after Friday's ratings changes. There are now 17 Republican-held seats rated as Toss Ups, compared with just five Democratic-held seats. Republicans would need to win a majority of the Toss Up races to keep control of the House, according to Cook. Zoom out: Some of the most competitive House races are overwhelmingly in districts President Trump won in 2024. Trump is underwater in many of those districts, driven in large part by dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy, according to Cook. The median Toss Up district voted for Trump by 7 percentage points in 2024.

Read it at Axios ↗

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