Big 12 Championship picks: Predicting 1 favorite and 1 sleeper for the 2026 title

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - DECEMBER 06: A.J. Holmes Jr. #33 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders kneels on the field before the Big 12 Championship game against the BYU Cougars at AT&T Stadium on December 06, 2025 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by John E. ) | Getty Images The Big 12..sorry, sorry. My mistake. The Monster Energy Big 12 Football™ conference has been a weird and intriguing league to follow since its current iteration went into effect a few seasons ago. The absence of a true “blueblood” like Oklahoma or Texas has opened the door for several teams in this geographically vast conference to make a run at the top spot, creating competitive title races where multiple teams are in the mix in the final week of the regular season. This year should be no different. Texas Tech’s massive spending efforts last year yielded immediate ROI in the form of a Big 12 title and it will try to run it back as the clear cut favorite to take home the league championship again this season. Between the seemingly never ending Brendan Sorsby saga and Cody Campbell’s involvement in the proposed Protect College Sports Act, the Red Raiders were right next to LSU as the main character of the offseason, elevating them to villain status both within the league and across the country. That’s a role that the fast-rising program in Lubbock has willingly embraced and could back it up with another trip to Jerry World this December. BYU’s only two losses in 2025 came at the hands of Texas Tech and with reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year LJ Martin returning to the backfield, the Cougars remain the biggest challenger to the Red Raiders. Their Holy War rival Utah should also be in the thick of the title race with Morgan Scalley stepping up as head coach following Kyle Whittingham’s departure to Michigan. Meanwhile, Houston lurked in the shadows as a quiet 10-win team in 2025 and with a top-10 transfer portal class coming in, this could be a breakthrough season for Willie Fritz’s crew. The margins are thin in a league like the Big 12 and there’s always room for one of its middle-of-the-pack squads to jump right to the top with a few good breaks. That could be the case for a who like Kansas State, who is now under the leadership of program legend Collin Klein as he tries to maximize senior quarterback Avery Johnson. That could also be the case for Arizona, a nine-win outfit from last season that brings back veteran QB Noah Fifita. Arizona State took a step back last year after its 2024 run to the College Football Playoff and there’s high hopes for Kentucky transfer Cutter Boley QB taking over as the starter. And who knows, maybe new Oklahoma head coach Eric Morris State can pull off a massive turnaround by basically importing North Texas’ roster with rising star Drew Mestermaker chief among them. 2026 Big 12 Championship Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook Texas Tech-105 BYU+490 Utah+850 Houston+1500 Kansas State+1800 TCU+2200 Arizona+2500 Arizona State+2700 Oklahoma State+2700 West Virginia+4000 Baylor+4000 Kansas+4000 UCF+5000 Cincinnati+10000 Colorado+10000 Iowa State+12500 Big 12 Championship pick: Texas Tech Red Raiders Ok, look. I’m not going to re-litigate the Brendan Sorsby situation from the offseason. That entire ordeal was beaten to death. After getting shut out by Oregon in the Orange Bowl, Tech felt that an upgrade at QB was needed to advance deeper in the College Football Playoff and that could be an issue once again in the 12-team bracket. But those are playoff problems. This team should still wreck shop in the Big 12 on the way there. The Red Raiders allocated their money wisely in 2025 by basically focusing heavily the defensive side of the football and the results spoke for themselves: an opponent average of 11.8 ppg including two shutouts, No. 1 rankings in adjusted EPA per play, success rate, and havoc rate, and a final ranking of No. 3 in defensive SP+. I mean, look at their defensive profile on Game on Paper. They nearly maxed out the entire radar chart! Normally the loss of a No. 2 overall pick in David Bailey and a Nagurski/Butkus/Lombardi/Bednarik/everything winner in Jacob Rodriguez would be a devastating blow to a unit, but nah, DC Shiel Wood’s crew should continue to cause mayhem. Tech had five defensive players named to the preseason All Big-12 team including lineman A.J. Holmes Jr., who was responsible for 4.5 sacks on last year’s unit. Adam Trick could fill Bailey’s shoes as the newest transfer terror coming off the edge while in the backfield, cornerback Brice Pollock is back after recording five interceptions in 2025. Yeah, this defense should be a nightmare to deal with once again. Ok, so the Sorsby thing didn’t work out, but Tech still has Will Hammond to lean on at quarterback. The third-year QB got plenty of reps as Behren Morton’s backup last season and put up decent numbers, so there will at least be a level of continuity and familiarity that the staff can rely on from their new starter. The Red Raiders handled most of of its business on the ground with the running back duo of Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams last season and the return of both should take some pressure off Hammond. It should be noted that Tech’s offense benefitted from excellent average starting field position due to the dominance of both its defense and special teams. Replicate that and the job becomes even easier for Hammond to operate. Texas Tech avoids both BYU and Utah in the regular season this year and its toughest test in the Big 12 will come early with a Friday-night home showdown against Houston on September 23. Clear that hurdle and there’s a chance that it can cruise undefeated all the way into the Big 12 Championship Game. Big 12 Championship sleeper pick: Oklahoma State Cowboys You know what, let’s have some fun here. As mentioned before, the margins in the Big 12 are incredibly thin and a case could be made for about half the teams in the conference joining Texas Tech in Arlington. So let’s envision Oklahoma State doing a complete 180 after the Mike Gundy crashed and burned with a 1-11 campaign last season. Eric Morris had already developed a reputation as a quarterback whisperer and pulled off his most impressive job in 2025 in the supernova-like rise of Drew Mestemaker, a former walk-on who didn’t even start in high school. The QB became a rising star overnight, leading the nation in passing yards while leading North Texas to a 12-win season and the doorstep of a College Football Playoff appearance. The Mean Green ended the year with the No. 1 offense in SP+ and as mentioned earlier, several of those playmakers, Mestemaker included, have followed the head coach to Stillwater. That includes top receiving weapon Wyatt Young, who caught 70 of Mestemaker’s targets for 1,264 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2025. But the actual workhorse of the offense was running back Caleb Hawkins, who took 231 carries for over 1,400 yards with a nation-leading 25 touchdowns on the ground. The fact that Morris was able to stave off other potential suitors and get him to come to Stillwater could quietly be considered a coup. Meanwhile, defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity helped improve the Mean Green defense last season and he’s also bringing productive starters like linebacker Ethan Wesolocki to Oklahoma State as well. With nearly every roster flipping from year-to-year across the sport, there’s a comfort in continuity and that may immediately benefit OSU has it copy and pastes nearly everything from North Texas this season. An October 17 showdown at Houston will be a huge measuring stick for Mestemaker and company, as well as a late-season home showdown against Texas Tech. You never know. The Cowboys may take the entire conference by surprise.

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