I like Jonathan Kuminga signing for the Wolves even if I should know better

ATLANTA, GA - MARCH 21: Jonathan Kuminga #0 of the Atlanta Hawks smiles during the game against the Atlanta Hawks on March 21, 2026 at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Adam Hagy/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images Jonathan Kuminga has always been a frustrating player. The Golden State Warriors bought into the idea of Kuminga as a high-upside scoring prospect when they took him with the No. 7 overall pick in the 2021 Draft, and it was easy to see the idea in theory. Kuminga has a great frame and elite explosiveness for a forward at 6’8, 225 pounds with a 6’11 wingspan. At his best, he’s a tantalizing downhill bucket-getter who can finish through contact in the halfcourt, fly in transition, and play bully-ball with straight line drives against smaller defenders. It’s an archetype that’s been highly coveted throughout NBA history, but the demands of the modern game put more stress on both feel and skill level, and that’s where Kuminga falls short. It’s simply not enough to try to run over defenders anymore. Today’s best four men have to be able to make connective passing reads, space the floor with volume three-point shooting, and be disruptive off the ball defensively. Kuminga is below average in all three areas, and has always been more determined to “play his game” rather than shape-shift into the mold of a player who could leave a bigger imprint on team success. Kuminga signed with the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday for two years, $13 million with a player option. He had been after a player option for years going back to his highly publicized contract standoff with Golden State. The Warriors reportedly offered Kuminga has much as $48 million guaranteed at one point, but he wanted more control over his future with the belief that his scoring would get him paid in free agency. Turning down that deal feels like an obvious misstep now, as Kuminga ultimately settled for $23 million last season before signing for $6.5 million this year. It sure feels like he’s an example of when betting on yourself goes wrong, but it’s still too early to finalize that narrative. The Wolves may not have given him the money he was looking for, but they can give him a major opportunity. Kuminga is slated to start at the four in Minnesota next to Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, Rudy Gobert, and Jaden McDaniels. He’s the final piece of Tim Connelly’s summer makeover in an attempt to keep pace with the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder in the West. The Wolves won a playoff series last season over Denver, but they only scored 107.4 points per 100 possessions over their 12 postseason games, which would have ranked dead-last during the regular season. Julius Randle’s bull-in-a-China-shop routine wasn’t going to cut it, Donte DiVincenzo is set to miss the season rehabbing a torn Achilles, and more Naz Reid wasn’t going to lead to a meaningful improvement. Connelly made the most of his limited flexibility, and it gives the Wolves a potentially high-octane lineup with legitimate upside but real question marks about how it all fits together. I had the Wolves fourth in my preseason power rankings even before they signed Kuminga, but repeatedly noted I would feel more comfortable about it if they had a bigger player in the starting lineup rather than Ayo Dosunmu. Kuminga isn’t a perfect answer, but he certainly gives Minnesota an added dose of physicality that they badly needed to stay afloat in the West. The question will be if he can dial back his worst tendencies and recognize scoring alone won’t lead to the payday he covets next summer. Steve Kerr’s read-and-react system was probably the worst possible fit for Kuminga. He’s never been a high feel player, and that hasn’t been improving with more experience. Instead, Kuminga is best when he can put his head down an attack a weaker matchup on a titled floor. It’s easy to imagine that Ball’s panoramic passing vision could be a big boost for his individual production. Kuminga has been a highly efficient cutter with 73% true shooting for his career on that playtype, including +9.5 rTS% (true shooting relative to league-average) last year, per NBARAPM. That’s great! The issue is that he only generates 1.6 cuts per game, a pretty weak number that has to grow for him to blossom in Minnesota. Kuminga can be sick in transition, too. He’s at 66.8% true shooting for his career in transition, or +2.4 rTS%. The issue again is a lack of volume and too many opportunities squandered dribbling off his foot. Ball’s hit-ahead passing would get anymore moving, offering another source of optimism for this fit. Would you believe Kuminga actually grades out better defensively than on offense? RAPM had him as a -1 offensively and a +1 defensively, good for a neutral player overall, which is actually a nice value for Minnesota on the deal he just signed. Kuminga is damn good at rebounding, ranking in the 94th percentile of defensive rebound rate and the 90th percentile of grabbing his teammates’ misses on offense. This is probably his cleanest translation with the Wolves, playing into the idea that he can give Minnesota some extra physicality it was missing. The issue with Kuminga is that he’s a low-volume passer and shooter. The Wolves need a floor spacer in the front court next to a total non-shooter like Gobert. Kuminga only took 6.1 threes per 100 possessions last year, and hit them at a 33% clip. He’s both a hesitant and inaccurate outside shooter, and that’s going to put a lot of pressure on Edwards and Ball to chuck deep shots off the dribble to help the Wolves generate enough threes to win. It’s always a give-and-take with a value signing like this one, and Kuminga has more upside than most players who accept a deal like this. He turns 24 years old in Oct., and he’s already been humbled in his brief career. There’s a world where he takes more pride his defense, improves a bit as an outside shooter, and becomes a key piece for a Wolves team that absolutely has the talent to make a deep playoff run. If that happens, Kuminga will have enough moments of one-on-one scoring that he could still cash in next summer on a bigger deal. It certainly feels like a long-shot, but he’s young enough and talented enough to get it done. Kuminga’s physical tools were always what gave him the perception of being a high-upside player. Now entering his sixth season, it’s time he realizes that tools can only get you so far. If anything, his size and explosiveness gives him a strong foundation to continue to build his game. Impacting winning at the highest levels involves a lot more than trying to cook in isolation. Great teams always talk about sacrifice, and Kuminga is a premium example of a player who would be best served to take a step back from some of his individual aspirations for the greater good of both his long-term future and Minnesota’s chances of winning right now. I have never been all that high on Kuminga, ranking him only No. 12 on my 2021 draft board when he was drafted seventh. Somehow, I find myself more intrigued now than I have been in the past. The Wolves need his physicality on the glass and transition force. In the playoffs, his ability to hunt weaker defenders could actually be beneficial — as it was when he dropped 21 points on 9-of-14 shooting in Game 3 to give the Hawks a 2-1 first round lead over the Knicks. The Wolves could be loaded this year. They just need Kuminga to realize that in many ways, less is more.

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